30 nov 2010

The Schedule From Hell or A Great Opportunity?

Även publicerad på ChelseaVital - se länk t v.

When I saw the playing schedule this Summer, I already started sweating bullets over the games in December.

Sir Red Nose and others focused on telling everyone what an easy schedule Chelsea had at the beginning of the season, of course as it is mindgames number one belittling the opponents. Not that his or other critics teams have fared much better than Chelsea against any of those easy teams. As always games have to be played before anyone can say anything.

I feared this schedule so much just because Chelsea`s December form has, for a couple of years, now been a problem, and it is a problem as the tough December schedule is virtually deciding the Premier League every year. Any team that does not take more points from now on until the FA Cup 3rd round in January than they lose will not win the league, I think.

And as it turned out our schedule is even worse than it looked before the season, as who of us would have picked Bolton to sit comfortably in 6th place right now? We play all the top 6 but City within weeks now. Plus Everton who so often cause us grief.

We play, in order: Everton (h), Marseille (a), Tottenham (a), Manchester United (h), Arsenal (a), Bolton (h) and Aston Villa (h). I disregard the Marseille game immediately as it is technically as unimportant as a friendly international game. To me it is more of a risk for injuries than a game that matters. So Carlo should absolutely field a young team with back up players and maybe Drogba who really would like to play at the Velodrome in front of his old audience. It would be nice to be the first English team to ever win all six group games, but not if we come away from it with vital injuries.

The six league games are vital, maybe more important than any other six league games this season. If we can start a winning streak again, we could very well again put the competition behind us. Not that it will be easy, not at all. Whether we show recent form or good form.

If we take a look on the period from now until the second weekend of January in the last couple of years, Chelsea have lost a lot of points most years. They are not all the way comparable games as we often played more cup games this period. The FA Cup third round for example is this year the second weekend of January instead of the first etc. There has always been a CL-game and often Carling Cup games in this period.

Our first modern time Championship year was a great year for us. In 2004-05 Chelsea won 8 games and drew with Arsenal. The second Championship year was even better, 8 straight wins, not a point lost. Then we started losing points in this period. 06-07 we won 7 times (3 in cups), 2 draws (1 cup) and lost once. The year after we had our worst league position since Roman took over, and we showed it this period. Only 3 wins (1 cup), 4 draws (1 cup) and 2 losses, one to Arsenal.

Last year we retained the champion`s crown, but this period was not brilliant despite actually having 5 wins, though 2 of them were in cups. We lost only once, but 3 draws took away more points (1 cup though).

So it was with trepidation I saw our draw when the schedule was published this Summer.

After our absolutely brilliant start of season, I believed our loss of form would be this period again. It turned out that November was our worst month in more than ten years. I will not revisit the horrors of that month, though I still think only the Sunderland game was absolutely horrific. The main problem has been our first halves, we were really poor in those against Liverpool and Newcastle, a bit better against Birmingham. The last game we dominated as we dominated second half in the others too, but could not score even from about 1,5-2 meters with an open goal. The inefficiencies have been pure pain to watch.

So Chelsea are at the crossroad right now. Either Carlo and the players turn this around starting on Saturday or we will be able to very much concentrate on the Champions League play offs in February, together maybe with another nice FA Cup run.

This year we have Everton who we lost to away from home last season. We have them at Stamford Bridge, but is it a fortress any more, after the humilation to Sunderland? Everton are totally unpredictable this year. But they look less impressive this season despite also having a poor start last year. They are like us a team that is looking greatly for improvement right now and that is always dangerous. And everyone wants to beat the champions.

Normally we should beat Everton at home though. Not that anything seems normal this Premier League season, for any team.

I expect us to lose in Marseille as Chelsea will play a weakened team. Marseille are also through but want to show their fans what they can do at home. As we saw last week nobody cares about the team you field, only the result, as so many know-it-all journalists dissed Chelsea for only beating Zilina with the odd goal. Unimportant games also tend to invite poor performances for us.

Then comes maybe the toughest game of them all. Tottenham who are flying high in form and confidence at the former 3 Point Lane. We have not impressed there the last two seasons, not at all. This is the key game of the entire period. We must contain Bale, and it is not a job for Paulo Ferreira! Bosingwa is the only player with enough speed and he will need Ramires`s speed to help him with that chore. Van der Vaart is maybe the best transfer of the season, but struggles with niggling injuries it seems from game to game. I am impressed with Tottenham, they have stood up much better in the CL than I ever thought and they have not lost the plot in the league meanwhile either. Turning the tide at the New Lib was impressive considering that it was the first time in was it 59 times (?) they won away against a Big Four-team (though that moniker has to be buried soon as Liverpool are no longer a big team).

After that we have Manchester United who we statistically actually have an easier time against than the other Big Fours. We have only lost to them 4 times out of 18 at the Bridge! I have great hopes for that game, and I would love to see our premier Big-game player Drogba, for once, be successfull against those red.

The next game is Drogba`s favourite whipping boys, Arsenal. A team we have an awful December run against. We have not won against them in December the times we have met them in that month since Roman arrived! They are however a pretty poor home team this season, so another 3-0 at the New Lib would be welcome. Two goals by Drogba!? Hopefully Fabregas will play as it seems they are not as good with him as without him right now….

But honestly, the scheduling computer at FA must have worked overtime to come up with that trifecta of games; Tottenham, Manchester United, Arsenal - all the other Champions League teams in 15 days (and two of them away!). It is almost like UEFA had something to do with it.

Then two more really tough games. Both at home though, but still. Bolton have impressed this year and Aston Villa are always a tough opponent, though we usually fare better at home than away against the midlanders.

It is the playing schedule from hell, but also a golden opportunity to yank back the bit and take the lead in the race again. If, in an ideal scenario, we would beat Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester United we surely must look really good for another bucket.

All the games this year are really important. I know it is the cliché of all clichés more or less, like the ball is round etc etc…. But this year no league in Europe (not even Bundesliga) seems to be closer and with more surprising results. It is not a two-horse race like that increasingly boring La Liga. Serie A is more equal than usually as Benitez is wreaking havoc with Inter, but nowhere as tough or good as the Premier League.

Still, beating our closest competitors will probably decide the league this year, as it did last year.

Chelsea can do this. Yes, we have been fairly awful lately but then a few weeks ago we were considered almost invincible. With injured and suspended players back, why should we not become that team again if we all get behind our team and look brightly at the future. Sometime the luck that evaded us in these painful weeks will grace us again. The refs will be fair again and confidence will return in the players.

If we only show up to the games when they start, not only after the tea break.