8 augusti 2009


Next Season - The Summary!

Även publicerad på Vital Chelsea.


Encouraged by the overwhelming (!) victory in our competition of predicting the last season`s outcome ;-, dare I make another go of it. (Not that I was so impressed by the score, but I liked the difference to the second placed tipster!)

I think the 2009-2010 will be a closer season than in a long time in the Premier League, but I do not think there will be any new takers of the top spots. But the difference between the top four and the top seven will be slighter than ever. And the top four can not take anything for granted. Every game will count, no room for experimenting with teams and starting line-ups in the league this year.

Even more than usual the games around the holidays and in January will decide the outcome of the season, especially for the top teams. No team can afford to give away draws in this period. More than five draws (in total) and I think that team can be counted out of the running.

Chelsea have the last three years played ourselves out of competition this period and this coming season we will have the dreaded Africa Cup to deal with. No other top team will lose as many top players to that tournament as we and the team really will have to stand up this year while the Africans are gone. Thankfully the schedule looks decent for us, but concentration has to be maximum from mid December to the end of January for Chelsea. And hope for no major injuries (Essien, Joe Cole, Ferreira) this year.

So this is my take on what will happen and how the table will look early May. (The season ends early as it is a WC-year). The top is all too familiar. Despite that every top-4 team except Chelsea is weaker this year than last. I still think the regular suspects have the necessary experience and stamina to keep their top spots. We all saw Villa`s crumbling last season.

Champions: Chelsea. Even if I did not believe it I would never say anything else! But I do firmly believe it. We may have an ageing squad in some other people`s opinion, but it is pure quality age. Also as Arsenal are proving, youth alone is overrated. I also think Carlo Ancelotti will have a better rapport with the players, he is certainly more aware of details and trainings methods than Scolari was. He has not the game changing skills of Hiddink, but he does have the precision and man-man requirements. He is careful in planning and preparation, which is what the Chelsea players like. Chelsea have an even better squad than last. Squadwise the other top teams can not equal us. There is no position that do not have adequate back-up or even better.

Chelsea player to watch the coming season, Yuri Zhirkov, he is pure class and will show it. I think he will adapt faster than most think. The mobbed player (among the fans) the coming season will be Ballack as so many are ludicrously biased against him and are unable to evaluate what he actually brings to the team. He will play a lot more than our polls suggest. Improved players will be the entire team, but Petr Cech, José Bosingwa, Mikel, Malouda and a healthy Alex (played most of last season with an injury) hopefully takes at least another step from last season. (Not that they were bad at all, far from it, but it is in them). Sturridge`s pre-season brings some expectations on him. It will be an epic fight between Zhirkov and Malouda for the starting spot. Compared to last season JT really have to step up a bit or face competition for his spot from Ivanovic. Though JT`s biggest strength today is his leadership abilities. Biggest hopes for the future; I hope to see Kakuta play in the CC, as well as Mancienne, Sturridge, Turnbull, maybe even Melis, Hutchinson and others. I do not want to see Chelsea play the first choice squad in the CC, whatever demands for titles we have! In the FA Cup we can play half and half, so to say. (I am also happy that Chelsea have not -yet-- splashed money on a marquee player, which to me is a player that sells shirts more than fitting the team`s needs and character).

Runner-Up: Liverpool. Again, though I was very close to chose Man U before Liverpool. I think Rafa Benitez have realised that the league is way more important to his supporters and he will again play with less rotation and even if I do not think Glen Johnson is the last piece of the jigsaw, (in my eyes he is hardly better than Arbeloa was) I think Torres and Gerrard might be good enough to carry the team to second place. The most important business they have done is the contract extensions for Benayoun and Gerrard. Losing Alonso is a big blow, even if Benitez tried to rid himself of Alonso already last Summer. After all he was their second best player last season. Aquilani it is an interesting replacement that I think in the long run will be good, but I do not expect him to work out immediately. But they can absolutely not afford to lose Mascherano too. Agger might be the most improved player if he can stay healthy, with last year`s best transfer Riera. Injuries might stir things up for them. With injuries on Torres and Mascherano the squad do not have good enough subs. Their total reliance on Gerrard is also a sign of weakness. And how is it with defensive back-ups, especially at the full backs?!

Third: Manchester United, in a very tough fight with Liverpool. I thought Man U would have a reaction already last year, they did not, instead did they play much more like a team than the year before. Impressive. They have a better squad than Liverpool, but not as good first XI. Nani, Anderson are not top quality in my eyes. Still, four years running as champions is highly unlikely to me and I think Man U will have a season in which they are rebuilding after losing Ronaldo and Tevez, the main portion of their goalscoring. Sir red nose is an awesome motivator, but not even his hair dryer approach can motivate to a fourth year with a weaker squad. And their youngsters are not ready to fill the void. Much depends on how Berbatov bounces back or not. Rooney will be their most important player, if he gets injured long time Man U might drop. Man U have not improved their squad and I think they again (like early this century) are taking a back seat a season or two while rebuilding the team. Owen is a very interesting gamble, as he healthwise is almost a Robben. If sir red nose get the youngsters, the Rafaels and Macheda, Wellbeck, to click into the team they might challenge Liverpool. I expect Ben Foster to replace v d Sar during the season (and not only now when vdS is injured) and he is an English goalkeeper! Giggs will be the geriatric of the year!

Fourth: Arsenal. Want-away Arshavin might be better, but despite his amazing Anfield goals, he can be quite inconsistent. He can not carry Arsenal a full season but in individual games they can not be disregarded. Inexperienced as they always are (=youth) they will be more competitive against felllow top teams than in the day-to-day run. Sadly for Drogba they plan to send Senderos his way (Everton?). Selling Touré, their best defender simply makes no sense, he is classes above today`s Gallas and new Vermaelen, even if last season was not his best at all. To me it is simply proof that Wenger no longer have any interest whatsoever in winning anything - he is just out to prove his theories and principles. Kieran Gibbs do I believe a lot in, he will probably oust Wayne Bridge from the WC team. I can not see them longing for losing Adebayor. Eduardo is better if he can stay fit. They have as usual released many youth players (despite their reputation do they release many more than they keep each year). Ramsey and/or Wilshire might be the big newcomer and Walcott have to prove himself, he is no longer a promise but has to show he is a finished player. They will have to fight very hard for 4th place. The games against the immediate opposition will decide.

The hunting pack:

5. Everton is the top choice again for being the top team hunting. They have not made any spectacular new signings, more wisely transfers, but have a good mix since before and a very capable manager. Hence they will have no problem with fitting any stars into their game. Resilient, tough and tactically adapt and they should (?) be less hit by major injuries this year. Have to play better against the top teams though. Keeping Lescott and a healthy Jagielka means a lot. Getting Arteta healthy is another key.

6. Aston Villa. They lost Gareth Barry and I do not think they will miss him as much as others do. They have good kids coming along, led by James Milner. Ashley Young is a favourite of many but will have to show more to win my admiration. Very weak finish of last season from him. As just about all wingers he is inconsistent. This is the key season for Agbonlahor, he showed much promise but has not taken that last step yet. Fabian Delph another young promise. Injuries and the defence will be O`Neill`s headache this season. And it can be a big one.

7.Manchester City. They do have the players to challenge for fourth, but not the manager, nor yet a team. I have serious doubts about Mark Hughes` man handling skills, especially with his foreign players. He is not among the good game coaches either. He has yet to show much tactical know-how, we complained about Scolari`s lack of plan B. I have not found out what Hughes` Plan A is, judging from last season. Of the top twelve team`s managers I rank him the least. On the other hand, no guarantees he will stay the entire season and then they might come higher up. Robinho should improve in his second season, or his transfer fee and wages must be questioned. Touré will mean a lot, their second most important purchase. Tevez will carry the team. One of the few players I wished Chelsea could have gotten. Just buying players does not make a team, or as the popular saying has been this Real-Summer, you should not start to build a house from the roof down. It takes time to make a team. Ignorant people compare City`s buying with Chelsea when Roman arrived, totally forgetting that Chelsea was a really good team, CL-qualified and a top team even before. Chelsea also bought people needed (mostly), City is buying to create a totally new team. Nothing in City`s pre-season games makes the competition fear them.

In middle ground in a fight among themselves:

8.West Ham. Some shrewd acquisitions and loans (very curious of Luis Jimenez) by Zola and Clarke. Low-key players of good standard. Not stars, but good dependable players that will improve the team. Keeping Upson away from Arsenal is a key. Might miss Boa Morte. Despite the boardroom troubles and poor finances do I think the hammers and their graceless fans will have another good season as they are a team under good management.

9.Tottenham. They underperformed a bit last year and I think this is where they belong the coming year. The wandering manager Redknapp did not impress with Tottenham as he did with Portsmouth. He has problems with getting his players behind him it seems, very inconsistent performances to be expected. No spectacular signings, and yes I think Peter Crouch belongs within that comment even if he and Redknapp have a good, long, relationship. Which is also why he is brought to Spurs, his relationship with the manager. Redknapp have a tendency to buy the same players over and over again when dragging his luggage around the English clubs. Bassong is a good transfer.

10.Fulham, the 7th place last year was a big surprise and should have made Hodgson manager of the year. I think they will be a bit further down this season but far from being in relegation battle. If higher up considering how the competition have improved compared to Fulham, will be another feather for Hodgson. Keeping Hangeland away from Arsenal is a key.

11.Wigan. I believe they will have a better season than last. They have lost their star player but gained a manager I think will make a difference for the team in Roberto Martinez. I think he is a very interesting young manager. Hopefully Scott Sinclair gets a lot of playing time for him.

Have to look behind them:

12.Sunderland. It can be much further down. I think Bruce is a good manager that now have had the team for a pre-season build up. Still, the team I think is the hardest to place. I can not see them higher up, but very well way down in the table. Despite them being fairly active in the market. Darren Bent has a lot to prove after his unimpressive time with Tottenham.

13.Blackburn. Maybe Big Sam can turn them around, but the loss of Roque Santa Cruz is too big. He has some new names that can be interesting though, like Kalinic and the loan of our Franco Di Santo. Hard to place.

14.Bolton. A team that can play down and dirty but not challenge the better teams. Always a headache for other teams. The most traditionally playing English team. And in many ways the most anynomous. Personally I hope Elmander will find his feet this season. He has a lot of qualities Bolton could not get out last though he is not a goalgetter, more in the vein of a powerforward.

Relegation battle to be expected.

15.Birmingham have been up and down and can be close to relegation again, but I think they have the toughness and experience to manage to stay clear. Interesting signings that bring experience and hope of a safe journey this time, especially Barry Ferguson. Could be higher up, but realistically all newcomers struggle as the step between the Championship and PL is so big. Sebastian Larsson can be a key player for them.

16.Stoke impressed last season by playing to their strengths, but they still have a rather weak squad. I think they will be more involved in the relegation battle this year. Pulis is a shrewd fox and able to get the best out of the not most talented players.

17.Portsmouth. New owner but nothing much else happened. No manager decision for most of the Summer, and then they stayed with Hart(!) and no players. Lost their "marquee" players. It can go much worse than this place, much worse. A tip with rather much heart, and a feeling they will be active late in the silly season and in January. They could do well to look at Scandinavia to find good, solid players that supply loyalty to relatively low cost.

Relegation

18.Wolverhampton will be this year`s WBA. Nicer play than abilities in gathering points. They have tried to strengthen, but is it enough? Doubt it!

19.Hull, close to drop out last year after a sensational start. It will be tougher this year to stay up. Have not been able to get the players they wanted, and needed. Geovani carried the team last year and he have to do even better this year. I am also curious about Altidore that was good in Confed Cup.

20. Burnley, They simply do not have the squad for anything else and have not improved it enough either. It can get ugly for them. They can not live on the memories of eliminating Chelsea from the drink cup for ever. Another Derby pointwise?

Silly season is not over and maybe some shrewd buying can change this outcome, but as we have to make the prediction before the season starts….

Biggest hope (and it goes for all football): a major improvement in the quality of the work of the referees, and most singularly by Mike Riley nationally. (Internationally I hope never to see Tom Henning Øvrebø using a whistle as a referee again, maybe as a crossing guard).

Now it is up to you to do a better job and to beat me, or let me run away with the title a second consecutive year. Good luck! It should be a very interesting (and for us rewarding) season.

BONUS. Winners in the other leagues;

Spain - Barcelona,
Italy - Inter,
Germany - Werder Bremen,
France - Marseille,
Holland - AZ Alkmaar,
Portugal - Porto.

Lindy

 

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